It's a new year, and many are making forecasts. I don't have any, but I have some questions on how likely some scenarios others have predicted in leading to a more general problem.
Have emerging economies, particularly the BRICs, sufficiently decoupled from the US economy to withstand a possible double dip recession? How likely is a popping of the Chinese real estate 'bubble'? Will a popping lead to a Chinese bank crisis?
Have other emerging markets decoupled from China, at least in the eyes of portfolio managers? Will a bank theoretical crisis in China lead to a sudden cascade of hot money out of other emerging markets?
Are Europeans confident about the strength of the Euro? If confidence withers, will this lead to large outflows of savings? To which currency? (I think I know where, should this ever happen)
Is the US recovery in danger from a sudden commodity spike? What effect will a possible double dip have on the rest of the world? Will these economic linkages be a danger, or is each area of the world stable enough to withstand heightened risk elsewhere?